Tracking American Presidential Candidate Thought Trends with Google Insight

 

Disclaimer: this post is not meant to be a political commentary on any party, nor is it an endorsement for any candidate. Please refrain from making political comments that are not directly related to the search industry and political search behavior; disrespectful comments will not be published. None of the statements below represent Link Fish Media, Inc.

The point of this search behavior analysis is to find popular searches happening in the summer of 2012, prior to this autumn’s full-blown election season, using Google Insights, which is in Beta. An in-depth followup will happen in October. The fundamental ambition is to find concerns and issues Americans are most curious about per candidate, according to swing states and states deemed to be either predominantly liberal or predominantly conservative.

Please note that “generic terms” in this search could include searches that overlap in an excessive nature and aren’t extremely relevant, such as the combination of candidate names like “romney obama” or “ron paul santorum” or searches with “2012” and “News” attached. These generic terms are found in many states, for every time period, and for each candidate, and as thus, they bear a significance in and of themselves as a search behavior. To reduce redundancy, however, these sprawling generic terms are not included in the rest of this report.

All trend searches were conducted on Google Insight using “Web Search” only, between the days of July 9-11, 2012. Google Insights is a time-sensitive tool, and results will change from week-to-week, and sometimes day-to-day. Please keep this in mind.

A few expected trends prior to research:

• Due to familiarity with the current President, fewer generic searches are projected to be trending for “Barack Obama” and “Obama”.
• Correlative to this, public interest in “Romney”, “Mitt Romney” and “Ron Paul” are projected to trend at higher rates.
• Non-generic searches will show high interest in health care, particularly relating to the recent Health Care Plan from Obama, as well as Romney’s Health Care Initiatives in Massachusetts.

States examined, in alphabetical order:

Swing States: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin

Note: These states were combined from two different sources – Conservapedia.com and 270towin.com.

Most liberal: Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington

Most conservative: Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina

Notes: The two lists above were chosen from a list informed by a 2011 Gallop poll, taking population into account over percentage. 

Terms Examined:

Obama

Barack Obama

Romney

Mitt Romney

Ron Paul

All terms were examined on two time tables: 2004-present, and 2012 only (researched on a national level, as there isn’t enough search volume to show trends per state yet in 2012.)

It may go without saying that attributing two keywords to Ron Paul, one being his surname, would yield too high a mix of irrelevant results and thus, his full name is used.

An additional Nationwide study for the First Ladies involved in the Presidential election of 2012 (Michelle Obama, Ann Romney, and Carol Wells) is included at the bottom as a bonus.

Obama

The top 5 states searching for this term are Washington DC, Maryland, New York, Illinois, and Georgia. The interesting point here is the interest from Illinois, where Obama was a state senator from 1997-2004.

The 3^rd top search is for the First Lady, Michelle Obama. What does this say about search? Perhaps it’s not a commentary to the nature of search or search behaviors, but is more of a representation of the importance and/or curiosity about the First Lady.

Liberal State Trends:

All liberal states were interested in Obama’s birth certificate, health care, Michelle Obama, as well as multimedia such as speeches and videos. Two liberal states in particular are searching for information about Obama’s approval rating: Massachusetts and New York. All states except for Washington seemed interested in geographical information concerning Obama, which is assumed to be users hoping to find speaking tour dates close to them.

What may be the most interesting fact here is the lack of interest regarding some subjects, some of which may present themselves in conservative trends.

Conservative State Trends:

All conservative states are searching for Michelle Obama, information about Obama’s birth certificate, health care, and Obama speeches. One particularly interesting Breakout search in this group was regarding religion: “obama muslim” is the #10 most rising search for “Obama” in Alabama.

Noteworthy National Breakout Search Term:

“Obama birth certificate” ranks #4 for national interest over time. Right above this at #3 is “Obama approval”, and below it, two keywords rank for the same issue: “obama care” and “obama health care”. If these two terms were combined, they could forseeably be the top breakout search term.

Swing State Trends:

How many swing states are among top searchers for this term nationally? 3 (North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania)

Swing states are requesting generally the same information, although an interesting search happening in Virginia is “inauguration”, as well as “obama inauguration”. The first page of SERPs for “obama inauguration” yields information pertaining to the 2009 inaugural address.

Every single swing state had breakout searches relating to Obama’s birth certificate, which is consistent with both conservative and liberal states. Nationally, the term “obama birth certificate” had two major peaks: once during the 2008 election season, and again in April/May of 2011.

One can speculate that the second peak may have largely been due to Donald Trump’s brief presidential bid, whose political narrative consisted of major doubts as to the credulity of President Obama’s birth certificate. In fact, the Breakout terms for “obama birth certificate” in 2011 were “donald trump obama”, “trump birth certificate”, and “trump obama”, which confirms Trump as the reason for the spike in searches in 2011. The most interested state in this topic is Hawaii, interestingly enough.

2012 only:

The #1 top searching state is the District of Columbia (which is technically not a state, of course).

Interesting Queries:

Obama Al Green

Obama sings

Obama singing

These queries are the top three Breakout searches for “Obama” and are in reference to viral video mash-ups of Obama speeches, remixed into pop songs, which came out in January of 2012. Also of note is “Obama supreme court” which has risen 450% in search popularity.

Barack Obama

The top 3 states searching this term most frequently are District of Columbia, Illinois, and Mississippi, which is interesting in and of itself. The Gallop poll which informed the initial Most Liberal/Most Conservative lists gave DC as the Most Liberal, and Mississippi as the most conservative. This shows that both regions, despite party affiliation, actively seek information about the current President.

Noteworthy National Breakout Search Term:

Two rising searches are “obama quotes” and “barack obama quotes”, a departure from breakouts for just the surname.

Liberal State Trends

“Michelle Obama” ranks very low on interest in liberal states, it would appear, as her name appears to rank low on rising searches, and only for New York, Oregon, and Washington. The people of Massachusetts are looking for the President’s specific Wikipedia entry increasingly. Residents of Oregon and Washington are also getting specific, using his full name, “Barack Hussein Obama” in searches.

Conservative State Trends

All states are interested in biographical information and speeches; all but one state (Arkansas) are searching for Michelle Obama. Louisiana and South Carolina are both keen on the birth certificate issue. Alabama and South Carolina are using the full name “Barack Hussein Obama”.

The people of Arkansas hardly have any trends for “Barack Obama”, which perhaps may be due to the familiarity of a president during a presidential term, although that theory is not reflected in liberal states.

Swing State Trends:

How many swing states are among top searchers for this term nationally? 2 (Pennsylvania and Ohio)

Instead of using Google Images, residents of swing states are searching for “barack obama pictures”. On a national level, many people want to see family photos of the Obamas.

The SERP for “barack obama pictures” is mostly comprised of galleries and online newspaper sections reserved for the President. What does this say about search? Expanding this one keyword to a national search, and you will find that the Southeast is more interested in pictures of the President more than any other region. Consistent with the rest of Obama related searches, the trend peaked in 2008 and sharply departed in 2009.

Closing notes: Liberal states refer to Obama’s Health Care Plan using the words “health care”; conservative states use “Obama care” instead. Nuance in language is particularly interesting regarding the culture built around respective parties.

2012 Only:

Inconsistent with the rest of this report, Mississippi is the #1 top searching state for “Barack Obama”. Three swing states among the top tens searching states are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Ohio.

Interesting Queries:

Barack Obama singing (NY only)

Barack Obama sings

Twitter Barack Obama

BarackObama.com

Barack Obama dog

Barack Obama Bracket

It seems people are still reaching out to Obama’s social media campaigning efforts, are interested in his family dog, and his NCAA Tournament (March Madness) Bracket.

Romney

States searching the most for “Romney” are Utah, West Virginia, Idaho, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts. Two things stick out here: Utah has the largest population of Mormons (with Idaho, interestingly, in second place for the American Mormon population) which is Romney’s religion. Despite the fact that they share Mormonism in common, Utahns are still researching the presidential candidate. The other interesting point is Massachusetts: not only is Massachusetts a liberal-leaning state, Romney served as 70^th governor from 2003-2007.

Noteworthy National Breakout Search Term:

“Romney dog” is the #5 Breakout term nationwide, assumably regarding the controversial story from the politician’s past.

Liberal State Trends

NY particularly interested in the term “Romney dog” with a couple of breakout terms popping up; just as many liberal states are searching for George Romney. Washington is searching for information about his Mormonism. Oregon has only generic terms and a very low search volume. No one is searching for “Ann Romney” or “George Romney”.

In Massachusetts, “Governor Romney” is a common associated search term, presumably with its peak between 2004-07, during his governorship. The Insights graph for this is certainly an interesting one:

As you can see, the majority of interest in Romney has already been searched for, back in 2004, in the state of Massachusetts.

Conservative State Trends

While searches for Romney are on the rise at this time, there are not enough searches in conservative states to yield top trends yet, with South Carolina and Alabama being the exceptions. None are interested in his Mormon religion, nor is anyone searching for “Romney dog”. Humorously, one of the top searches in Louisiana is for “Romney Pilates”, an exercise franchise.

Swing State Trends

How many swing states are among top 10 searchers? 1 (Iowa)

Florida has three searches trending regarding to geographic locations, assumably to find speaking dates in Florida. In fact, most swing states seem interested in Romney’s speaking engagements nearby, except for North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Only Pennsylvania is searching for information about the dog issue, and the only state searching for information about his Mormonism is Colorado. Everyone but Iowa and Nevada are searching for “Ann Romney”.

2012 only:

The top searching state in 2012 is Utah. Only 1 swing state is among the top 10 searchers for Romney this year.

Two top searches are for Ann Romney and three are about Romney’s dog incident.

Interesting Queries:

Romney dog roof

romney tax

Mitt Romney

 

The top five states showing regional interest in the term “Mitt Romney” are Utah, Idaho, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and Iowa.

The #10 nationwide top search is “mitt romney mormon”.

Noteworthy National Breakout Search Term: 

“Mitt Romney dog” is the only non-generic breakout search term on a National level for “Mitt Romney”.

Liberal State Trends

Ann & George Romney are removed from trends entirely here. Massachusetts is particularly interested in learning about the dog issue; only Massachusetts and Washington are looking for geographical (speaking dates) information. There seems to be a trend with the Northern states (MA, NJ, and NY) in adding “wiki” to a search term, especially in this case, that is unseen in other full name searches (Barack Obama, Ron Paul).

Conservative State Trends

This is perhaps the most befuddling part of the case study. Hardly anyone in the most conservative states are searching for Mitt Romney; in Louisiana, less than 800 people have searched for this term (according to Insight). In Mississippi and Arkansas, “Mitt Romney” is completely off the radar for Google Insights due to such low search volume; the only data provided of note is that searches for “Mitt Romney” have been erratic since January of 2011, and have plunged during the summer months of 2012.

What does this say about search? The low search volume here may be partially due to people simply using surnames more often; however, searches for “Romney” were noticeably lower as well. More notes on this are listed in the Takeaways, at the bottom of the post.

Swing State Trends

How many swing states are among top 10 nationwide searchers? 2 (Iowa and Nevada)

According to Insight, fewer than 200 people have searched for “Mitt Romney” since Spring of 2012 in Iowa, which is surprising, if it’s true. Around 400 for Nevada, for the same time period. Wisconsin has a keen interest in the dog issue – in fact, most swing states do, or at least as many as are searching for “bio” information, which is a big chunk – but this is the only non-generic search term pertaining to Romney to be searched in Wisconsin. Most swing states are looking for speaking information near to them, except, once again, North Carolina.

The only swing states that appear interested in Romney’s faith per “Mitt Romney” are Colorado and Pennsylvaia.

2012 alone:

#1 Searching State: Utah

Among the top ten searchers for 2012 alone, there are no swing states.

The #1 Breakout for this term is “Mitt Romney Mexican”, all coming from California between January 8-14. This is incredibly interesting in this particular election because of Romney’s father, George Romney, who was born in a Mormon colony in Mexico. George Romney ran for President in 1968 despite his birth in a foreign country, which draws somewhat similar parallels to Obama’s birth certificate debate, while not identical issues. The mystery: why did these searches only come from California?

Other breakout terms seem to seek information about Mitt Romney on a personal level: “mitt romney sons”, “mitt romney children”, and “real mitt romney”.

Ron Paul

Search peaks over time for Ron Paul have happened twice, noticeably: once in January of 2008 and again in January of 2012, which are consistent with his presidential candidacy bids.

How many swing states are among top 10 nationwide searchers? 2 (Iowa and Florida)

It seems Iowa has more interest in the Republican candidates. Iowa shows up as being in the top 10 for all three Republican terms researched here (“Romney”, “Mitt Romney”, and “Ron Paul”), and are therefore noticeably absent from searches about Obama. Nevada has shown up in 2 out of 3.

Noteworthy National Breakout Terms: “ron paul poll” and “ron paul polls” both show up as Breakout terms, as well as Top searches.

Liberal State Trends:

It seems Massachusetts may be confusing Ron Paul with Pope John Paul II, as “John Paul” is the first breakout term for the state coinciding with Ron Paul. It’s very likely that this is not a user problem, but rather an inevitability with such a common name as ‘Paul’.

Oregon is particularly enthusiastic about Ron Paul speaking engagements, as it has 4 trending searches that are geographically specific to Oregon. New York also has 4 trending searches, alll of which are related to polls. All liberal states are searching for “debates”.

Conservative State Trends:

Conservative state trends are consistent with “Mitt Romney” in that there aren’t enough searches happening to qualify anything non-generic as trending for most of the conservative states. However, Louisiana seems to be the most inquisitive, as it has trends for geographic, debate, and poll information. Alabama and South Carolina are the runners up here, but barely.

Swing State Trends:

All swing states, except for Nevada, seem interested in Ron Paul: they all are searching for poll and debate information. Most swing states are searching for geographical info. Iowa, unlike any other swing state, had search trends with the word “caucus” in it. Virginia has two trending searches for “Ron Paul Party” – is this because Virginians were not certain as to which political party Ron Paul is affiliated with?

What’s more interesting than searcher behavior, in this case, is search engine behavior. In Wisconsin, a state congressman named “Paul Ryan” got mixed into things; in Florida, “105.9” showed up. Again, another inevitable search engine hiccup.

North Carolina seems not to search for geo-related information whatsoever, for any candidate.

2012 only:

#1 Searching State: New Hampshire.

Nationwide breakout searches show that 4 out of 10 breakout searches are geographically specific: aside from “maine ron paul”, which ranks #2 in trending searches, the other three geographically specific terms are all from swing states: “ron paul nevada”, “iowa caucus” and “ron paul florida”. This is a starkly contrasted trend to “Mitt Romney” in 2012, in which there are no swing states among the top ten searchers in 2012 alone.

Totals of 2012

As you can see below, more than half of the searches this year involving the proper names of these three candidates are searches for “Obama”. As you can more clearly see here, far more searchers are using surnames only. Four swing states are in the top ten for all searches: Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio.

First Ladies of 2012

Out of curiosity, research was conducted for “Michelle Obama”, “Ann Romney” and “Carol Wells”. Searches for Carol Wells were too infrequent to show any hardy results. As for the other two terms, the results are fascinating.

Search volume is lower, as to be expected. Yet, you’ll notice the 4th through 7th top searching states are four out of five of the most conservative states: Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina. Even if the search volume is too low, they’re generally the most interested states in the First Lady & potential first ladies. This is consistent with the Southeast’s general interest in the personal life of a politician, as stated in the research provided for “Barack Obama”.

If you search for “Michelle Obama” and “Ann Romney” individually, you’ll find essentially the same top 10 states, and associated queries vary from “Michelle Obama letterman”, “Michelle Obama disbarred”, “Michelle Obama flag”, and et cetera.

In a sharp contrast, searches for “Ann Romney” are overwhelmingly coming from Utah. Nationally, a lot of curiosity revolves around her equestrian lawsuit issue with associated keywords like “ann romney dressage”, “dressage”, and “ann romney horse”.

 

Takeaways

Conservative Research Behavior Speculations:
Why do conservative states have such a lower search volume for all keywords? Possible explanations might be:

a) Conservative states do less research for a candidate

b) Conservative states are conducting research elsewhere

c) Conservative states have less political interest

d) Conservative states may vote straight ticket more often, so candidate information is not as important.

E) Conservative states are compelled to research candidates closer to voting day

The most noticeable finding regarding Republican candidate Ron Paul is the decline in search popularity; it was also found that Ron Paul had more irrelevant results over time, which, as has been noted, is more of a search engine behavior than a search user behavior.

The search volume for each term seems to increase in places in which voters and searchers identify with the candidate. Illinois is a top searcher for “Obama”; Massachusetts and Utah (specifically the Salt Lake City metro region) for “Romney”; “Ron Paul”, who served in the House of Representative for Texas’ 22nd District (south of Houston) seems to be the exception to this rule, but only somewhat: Texas is the #6 top searching state for 2004-present, but in 2012, doesn’t appear in the top 10 at all.

Major Issue Findings: Barack Obama’s major trending issue in search engines, over time, regards his birth certificate. Mitt Romney’s major issue regards his dog incident. Both of these issues deserved their own research:

“Obama birth certificate” : Arizona – by far – is the top searcher in 2012, which aligns with their tough stance on immigration and natural citizenship. Four swing states are searching for this term this year: Nevada, Colorado, Florida, and North Carolina. Associated terms are “Arpaio” and “obama approval rating”. This term seems to be dissipating, but gradually, with decreasing peaks occurring in the middle of each month since February. Two conservative states, Louisiana and Alabama, are searching for this. Noticeably absent are liberal states.

“Romney dog” : This term, oddly enough, also has its peak in the middle of each month. Is this due to scheduled updates to Insight? Massachusetts is the top searcher for “Romney dog” in 2012. Three swing states are searching for this: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia. Liberal states are searching for this term moreso than conservative states. Associated terms are “seamus romney dog” and “romney dog video”.

Following up on projections:

• Due to familiarity with the current President, fewer generic searches are projected to be trending for “Barack Obama” and “Obama”. FALSE.
• Correlative to this, public interest in “Romney”, “Mitt Romney” and “Ron Paul” are projected to trend at higher rates. FALSE.
• Non-generic searches will show high interest in health care, particularly relating to the recent Health Care Reform Plan from the Obama administration, as well as Romney’s Health Care Initiatives in Massachusetts. SOMEWHAT – queries relating to Obama did yield these results, although split between “Obamacare” and “Obama Health Care”; Romney had no top searches regarding his Massachusetts Health Reform Law.